The Best Bitcoin Trading Strategy - 5 Easy Steps to Profit

How I plan to identify and sell the top of the next market cycle.

In this post I will share with you some of the strategies I will use to identify the next market cycle top so I can sell for maximum profits (and of course buy back in later in the subsequent bear market!) In the first part of this post I will discuss the resources I will use and in the second part I will discuss tactics in selling and risk management.

Indicators

As the bull run begins to drag on and the price of ETH starts getting closer and closer to $10k I will begin to start watching many of the data science charts over at Look into Bitcoin. This will not be the only source I will use since there are great custom tools on TradingView too as well as more subjective indicators such as friends and family talking crypto and hearing about crypto again in the mainstream media. I’d also like to note that many of the indicators I will be looking at will be Bitcoin focused despite my ETH centred portfolio. Like it or not, this market is still Bitcoin dominated and despite the many proponents of an ETH flippening (myself included), it is quite likely that we will not see it this cycle due to the macro investing environment favouring assets which are good stores of value to weather the uncertainty. Ultimately, Bitcoin has the best store of value meme in crypto and that will be very powerful in the coming years.
I think it is likely that the time for Ethereum or a network like Ethereum with a yielding asset (ETH under ETH 2.0) and a native economy of DeFi, DApps, NFTs and much more will be once all of the stock market uncertainty is over and investors are ready to take on more risk again. I am of course still expecting Ethereum and altcoins to outperform Bitcoin this cycle. However, I think that Bitcoin losing the number 1 spot will be more likely to happen between 2023 and 2030 rather than in the next 2-3 years. I hope I am wrong though.
While most of the indicators on Looking into Bitcoin are useful, I will list the ones I’ll be focusing on the most here:
And finally my favourite, the Golden Ratio Multiplier. This indicator has been remarkably accurate at predicting tops using the golden ratio (1.6) and the fibonacci sequence (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21) multiplied by the 350 day moving average. With each market cycle, the 350 day moving average is multiplied by the next number down in the fibonacci sequence. For example, the 2013 peak only just passed above the 350 day moving average multiplied by 8 and the 2017 bull market just touched the 350 day moving average multiplied by 5. So if this indicator is to work in the next cycle, we can expect the price to slightly exceed 3 times the value of the 350 day moving average. This indicator also worked for Ethereum in the 2017 bull run. While there is no graph for it, on the 13th of January, when ETH hit a peak of $1,419, the 350 day moving average was at $270. $270 multiplied by 5 is $1,350. If you sold at $1,350 you sold incredibly close to the top and I don’t think that any macro traders/long term traders would complain about that timing.
I’d like to note that while indicators like the Golden Ratio Multiplier factors in for less explosive growth each cycle, not all of the above indicators do. So be cautious of this when you think the peak is near as it may be closer than you think. In saying that, there is a lot of luck involved so I should also point out that it also might not be closer than you think. However, it would be better to sell before the peak at say $10,000/BTC as of 2017 than to be left holding all of your crypto when the bear market begins since Bitcoin didn’t spend much time above $10,000/BTC after the $20K peak. Ultimately it is up to you to decide your risk appetite and how well you want to try and time the market. For me, I will definitely be on the conservative side so that I don’t miss the boat completely and hopefully I will be able to sell most of my crypto just before we peak rather than afterwards.

Risk Management

Since timing the top requires a lot of luck, a good method of mitigating the risk is to spread out when you sell. I’m going to share with you my personal strategy but I recommend that you create your own strategy or use this as a basis from which you can use to adjust and tweak it to optimally suit your situation. If you have a large stack, you will probably want to sell early since you might not need such spectacular gains to lock in some life changing money. On the other hand, if you have a smaller stack or if you are younger, you can afford to take more risk and might want to try and time the absolute peak a bit better to get that much closer to making some life changing money. Personally, while my stack isn’t very big in dollar terms, it is a significant % of my net worth and so I don’t have a high risk tolerance with it (at least relative to other people in crypto!) For this reason I will be selling a little bit on the early side.
My plan has three pots of crypto. 20% of my crypto I will hold indefinitely since I very strongly believe in the long term prospect of ETH and BTC as investments. This way if I time the markets terribly, I will always have some skin in the crypto game. The second pot of crypto is 40% which I will sell on the way up to take some profits and I don’t intend on putting this money back into crypto. Initially I will be selling very small amounts of this 40% and as the indicators listed above get closer and closer to calling a top, I will sell larger proportions of this crypto. I haven’t set specific target numbers since things change fast in this space and I feel like the best decisions in this case are made in the moment. For example, estimating a market top is hard when it is 2-3 years away, but it is much easier when it is just months or weeks away. Once again, this is just personal preference. Many of you will find that setting targets now makes it easier for you to pull the trigger and take some profits when everyone else is calling $1M BTC while it is at $100K or calling for $100K ETH when the current price might be $10K.
Finally, the last 40% I will sell all at once when I feel like we are at the top and I am confident that the price will be lower a year on from that point in time. With this 40% I will try and buy back during the bear market with the help of many of the same indicators I listed above from Look into Bitcoin. I will also use some indicators which I didn’t mention above since some are better designed at identifying market bottoms. My goal is to be able to buy back the number of BTC and ETH I held before I sold anything with this 40% (plus the 20% I didn’t sell). This is a big ask but it is better in life to set hard goals that seem unattainable or unrealistic than it is to set easy goals.
To summarise my portfolio strategy, 20% of my portfolio is an indefinite hold, 40% I will sell on the way up and I do not intend on buying back into crypto with this money so I can avoid being over-exposed to crypto. The last 40% I will use to try and sell the top and buy the bottom.

Closing Notes

As a closing note I would like to say that it will be important to be aware of the power of greed and FOMO. Do not under-estimate these emotions and try to remain a grounded and rational investor. Don’t be scared to take profits. I know from experience trading altcoins that it is better to exit a position early and miss out on another 100% price increase than it is to hold through a bear market and take >90% losses. If you go into this bullrun telling yourself you will take profits on the way up, you will have no reason to regret any early sales since you will know that you made a rational trade and not an emotional trade.
submitted by Tricky_Troll to ethfinance [link] [comments]

How I plan to identify and sell the top of the next market cycle.

In this post I will share with you some of the strategies I will use to identify the next market cycle top so I can sell for maximum profits (and of course buy back in later in the subsequent bear market!) In the first part of this post I will discuss the resources I will use and in the second part I will discuss tactics in selling and risk management.

Indicators

As the bull run begins to drag on and the price of ETH starts getting closer and closer to $10k I will begin to start watching many of the data science charts over at Look into Bitcoin. This will not be the only source I will use since there are great custom tools on TradingView too as well as more subjective indicators such as friends and family talking crypto and hearing about crypto again in the mainstream media. I’d also like to note that many of the indicators I will be looking at will be Bitcoin focused despite my ETH centred portfolio. Like it or not, this market is still Bitcoin dominated and despite the many proponents of an ETH flippening (myself included), it is quite likely that we will not see it this cycle due to the macro investing environment favouring assets which are good stores of value to weather the uncertainty. Ultimately, Bitcoin has the best store of value meme in crypto and that will be very powerful in the coming years.
I think it is likely that the time for Ethereum or a network like Ethereum with a yielding asset (ETH under ETH 2.0) and a native economy of DeFi, DApps, NFTs and much more will be once all of the stock market uncertainty is over and investors are ready to take on more risk again. I am of course still expecting Ethereum and altcoins to outperform Bitcoin this cycle. However, I think that Bitcoin losing the number 1 spot will be more likely to happen between 2023 and 2030 rather than in the next 2-3 years. I hope I am wrong though.
While most of the indicators on Looking into Bitcoin are useful, I will list the ones I’ll be focusing on the most here:
And finally my favourite, the Golden Ratio Multiplier. This indicator has been remarkably accurate at predicting tops using the golden ratio (1.6) and the fibonacci sequence (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21) multiplied by the 350 day moving average. With each market cycle, the 350 day moving average is multiplied by the next number down in the fibonacci sequence. For example, the 2013 peak only just passed above the 350 day moving average multiplied by 8 and the 2017 bull market just touched the 350 day moving average multiplied by 5. So if this indicator is to work in the next cycle, we can expect the price to slightly exceed 3 times the value of the 350 day moving average. This indicator also worked for Ethereum in the 2017 bull run. While there is no graph for it, on the 13th of January, when ETH hit a peak of $1,419, the 350 day moving average was at $270. $270 multiplied by 5 is $1,350. If you sold at $1,350 you sold incredibly close to the top and I don’t think that any macro traders/long term traders would complain about that timing.
I’d like to note that while indicators like the Golden Ratio Multiplier factors in for less explosive growth each cycle, not all of the above indicators do. So be cautious of this when you think the peak is near as it may be closer than you think. In saying that, there is a lot of luck involved so I should also point out that it also might not be closer than you think. However, it would be better to sell before the peak at say $10,000/BTC as of 2017 than to be left holding all of your crypto when the bear market begins since Bitcoin didn’t spend much time above $10,000/BTC after the $20K peak. Ultimately it is up to you to decide your risk appetite and how well you want to try and time the market. For me, I will definitely be on the conservative side so that I don’t miss the boat completely and hopefully I will be able to sell most of my crypto just before we peak rather than afterwards.

Risk Management

Since timing the top requires a lot of luck, a good method of mitigating the risk is to spread out when you sell. I’m going to share with you my personal strategy but I recommend that you create your own strategy or use this as a basis from which you can use to adjust and tweak it to optimally suit your situation. If you have a large stack, you will probably want to sell early since you might not need such spectacular gains to lock in some life changing money. On the other hand, if you have a smaller stack or if you are younger, you can afford to take more risk and might want to try and time the absolute peak a bit better to get that much closer to making some life changing money. Personally, while my stack isn’t very big in dollar terms, it is a significant % of my net worth and so I don’t have a high risk tolerance with it (at least relative to other people in crypto!) For this reason I will be selling a little bit on the early side.
My plan has three pots of crypto. 20% of my crypto I will hold indefinitely since I very strongly believe in the long term prospect of ETH and BTC as investments. This way if I time the markets terribly, I will always have some skin in the crypto game. The second pot of crypto is 40% which I will sell on the way up to take some profits and I don’t intend on putting this money back into crypto. Initially I will be selling very small amounts of this 40% and as the indicators listed above get closer and closer to calling a top, I will sell larger proportions of this crypto. I haven’t set specific target numbers since things change fast in this space and I feel like the best decisions in this case are made in the moment. For example, estimating a market top is hard when it is 2-3 years away, but it is much easier when it is just months or weeks away. Once again, this is just personal preference. Many of you will find that setting targets now makes it easier for you to pull the trigger and take some profits when everyone else is calling $1M BTC while it is at $100K or calling for $100K ETH when the current price might be $10K.
Finally, the last 40% I will sell all at once when I feel like we are at the top and I am confident that the price will be lower a year on from that point in time. With this 40% I will try and buy back during the bear market with the help of many of the same indicators I listed above from Look into Bitcoin. I will also use some indicators which I didn’t mention above since some are better designed at identifying market bottoms. My goal is to be able to buy back the number of BTC and ETH I held before I sold anything with this 40% (plus the 20% I didn’t sell). This is a big ask but it is better in life to set hard goals that seem unattainable or unrealistic than it is to set easy goals.
To summarise my portfolio strategy, 20% of my portfolio is an indefinite hold, 40% I will sell on the way up and I do not intend on buying back into crypto with this money so I can avoid being over-exposed to crypto. The last 40% I will use to try and sell the top and buy the bottom.

Closing Notes

As a closing note I would like to say that it will be important to be aware of the power of greed and FOMO. Do not under-estimate these emotions and try to remain a grounded and rational investor. Don’t be scared to take profits. I know from experience trading altcoins that it is better to exit a position early and miss out on another 100% price increase than it is to hold through a bear market and take >90% losses. If you go into this bullrun telling yourself you will take profits on the way up, you will have no reason to regret any early sales since you will know that you made a rational trade and not an emotional trade.
submitted by Tricky_Troll to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

How I plan to identify and sell the top of the next market cycle.

In this post I will share with you some of the strategies I will use to identify the next market cycle top so I can sell for maximum profits (and of course buy back in later in the subsequent bear market!) In the first part of this post I will discuss the resources I will use and in the second part I will discuss tactics in selling and risk management.

Indicators

As the bull run begins to drag on and the price of ETH starts getting closer and closer to $10k I will begin to start watching many of the data science charts over at Look into Bitcoin. This will not be the only source I will use since there are great custom tools on TradingView too as well as more subjective indicators such as friends and family talking crypto and hearing about crypto again in the mainstream media. I’d also like to note that many of the indicators I will be looking at will be Bitcoin focused despite my ETH centred portfolio. Like it or not, this market is still Bitcoin dominated and despite the many proponents of an ETH flippening (myself included), it is quite likely that we will not see it this cycle due to the macro investing environment favouring assets which are good stores of value to weather the uncertainty. Ultimately, Bitcoin has the best store of value meme in crypto and that will be very powerful in the coming years.
I think it is likely that the time for Ethereum or a network like Ethereum with a yielding asset (ETH under ETH 2.0) and a native economy of DeFi, DApps, NFTs and much more will be once all of the stock market uncertainty is over and investors are ready to take on more risk again. I am of course still expecting Ethereum and altcoins to outperform Bitcoin this cycle. However, I think that Bitcoin losing the number 1 spot will be more likely to happen between 2023 and 2030 rather than in the next 2-3 years. I hope I am wrong though.
While most of the indicators on Looking into Bitcoin are useful, I will list the ones I’ll be focusing on the most here:
And finally my favourite, the Golden Ratio Multiplier. This indicator has been remarkably accurate at predicting tops using the golden ratio (1.6) and the fibonacci sequence (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21) multiplied by the 350 day moving average. With each market cycle, the 350 day moving average is multiplied by the next number down in the fibonacci sequence. For example, the 2013 peak only just passed above the 350 day moving average multiplied by 8 and the 2017 bull market just touched the 350 day moving average multiplied by 5. So if this indicator is to work in the next cycle, we can expect the price to slightly exceed 3 times the value of the 350 day moving average. This indicator also worked for Ethereum in the 2017 bull run. While there is no graph for it, on the 13th of January, when ETH hit a peak of $1,419, the 350 day moving average was at $270. $270 multiplied by 5 is $1,350. If you sold at $1,350 you sold incredibly close to the top and I don’t think that any macro traders/long term traders would complain about that timing.
I’d like to note that while indicators like the Golden Ratio Multiplier factors in for less explosive growth each cycle, not all of the above indicators do. So be cautious of this when you think the peak is near as it may be closer than you think. In saying that, there is a lot of luck involved so I should also point out that it also might not be closer than you think. However, it would be better to sell before the peak at say $10,000/BTC as of 2017 than to be left holding all of your crypto when the bear market begins since Bitcoin didn’t spend much time above $10,000/BTC after the $20K peak. Ultimately it is up to you to decide your risk appetite and how well you want to try and time the market. For me, I will definitely be on the conservative side so that I don’t miss the boat completely and hopefully I will be able to sell most of my crypto just before we peak rather than afterwards.

Risk Management

Since timing the top requires a lot of luck, a good method of mitigating the risk is to spread out when you sell. I’m going to share with you my personal strategy but I recommend that you create your own strategy or use this as a basis from which you can use to adjust and tweak it to optimally suit your situation. If you have a large stack, you will probably want to sell early since you might not need such spectacular gains to lock in some life changing money. On the other hand, if you have a smaller stack or if you are younger, you can afford to take more risk and might want to try and time the absolute peak a bit better to get that much closer to making some life changing money. Personally, while my stack isn’t very big in dollar terms, it is a significant % of my net worth and so I don’t have a high risk tolerance with it (at least relative to other people in crypto!) For this reason I will be selling a little bit on the early side.
My plan has three pots of crypto. 20% of my crypto I will hold indefinitely since I very strongly believe in the long term prospect of ETH and BTC as investments. This way if I time the markets terribly, I will always have some skin in the crypto game. The second pot of crypto is 40% which I will sell on the way up to take some profits and I don’t intend on putting this money back into crypto. Initially I will be selling very small amounts of this 40% and as the indicators listed above get closer and closer to calling a top, I will sell larger proportions of this crypto. I haven’t set specific target numbers since things change fast in this space and I feel like the best decisions in this case are made in the moment. For example, estimating a market top is hard when it is 2-3 years away, but it is much easier when it is just months or weeks away. Once again, this is just personal preference. Many of you will find that setting targets now makes it easier for you to pull the trigger and take some profits when everyone else is calling $1M BTC while it is at $100K or calling for $100K ETH when the current price might be $10K.
Finally, the last 40% I will sell all at once when I feel like we are at the top and I am confident that the price will be lower a year on from that point in time. With this 40% I will try and buy back during the bear market with the help of many of the same indicators I listed above from Look into Bitcoin. I will also use some indicators which I didn’t mention above since some are better designed at identifying market bottoms. My goal is to be able to buy back the number of BTC and ETH I held before I sold anything with this 40% (plus the 20% I didn’t sell). This is a big ask but it is better in life to set hard goals that seem unattainable or unrealistic than it is to set easy goals.
To summarise my portfolio strategy, 20% of my portfolio is an indefinite hold, 40% I will sell on the way up and I do not intend on buying back into crypto with this money so I can avoid being over-exposed to crypto. The last 40% I will use to try and sell the top and buy the bottom.

Closing Notes

As a closing note I would like to say that it will be important to be aware of the power of greed and FOMO. Do not under-estimate these emotions and try to remain a grounded and rational investor. Don’t be scared to take profits. I know from experience trading altcoins that it is better to exit a position early and miss out on another 100% price increase than it is to hold through a bear market and take >90% losses. If you go into this bullrun telling yourself you will take profits on the way up, you will have no reason to regret any early sales since you will know that you made a rational trade and not an emotional trade.
submitted by Tricky_Troll to ethtrader [link] [comments]

Why was this recent downturn not surprising?

I just published a whole research paper for my clients yesterday predicting a drop based on the cash flow and the recent hash rate drop .
I protect my clients, so I will not disclose any information that they paid for. But I will say that it came from understanding the basic fundamentals of how bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies work. Cash flow monitoring is how any modern company is valued. I provide that for my clients using hard data.
I plan on telling them my expected exit price, but only after I factor in the degree of hash rate drops correlated with the efficiency of previous bitcoin mining machines. I will do this in order to find the optimal profit exit point for the miners (whales). I do the work.
If you are able to do this, good luck to you! But I do the work for my clients, and if you want someone working hard for you are welcome to join my crypto family and get the following:
  1. Risk analysis for BTC , BCH, ETH, and LTC.
  2. Coin creation costs for BTC , BCH, ETH, and LTC.
  3. Advanced data based research covering how the fundamental price floor affects the spot price Feb 7 Analysis
  4. Actively managed portfolio where you see my daily trades and risk percentages. I am currently 2.11% up from June 2 off of LTC and BTC actions.
  5. Weekly summary of fundamental actions and analysis.
  6. Continuous updates and improvements that center on what YOU need to understand how crypto actually works.
  7. Access to me for council and coaching on your strategy.
If you want to keep following people that draw lines from random points and feed you nonsense like Fibonacci numbers be my guest, enjoy swimming with the fish. Any moron can draw a line between point A and point B and make it fit any agenda. Enjoy being told what just happened and being led into traps by unknowledgeable people making false correlations.
If you want to watch what the whales are doing I am here to help. This is just the beginning of the fall.
Please look at my open analysis and work, it is worth your time:
Sample Analysis Risk Analysis
I hope you see the true value of this.
Aaron
P.S. If you don't follow this enjoy buying the highs and selling the lows. It makes me sick how people are saying bitcoin is going to $100k. They care nothing for your safety and risk exposure. They only care about FOMO and hype.
submitted by canaryinthebtcmine to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Why was this recent downturn not surprising?

I just published a whole research paper for my clients yesterday predicting a drop based on the cash flow and the recent hash rate drop .
I protect my clients, so I will not disclose any information that they paid for. But I will say that it came from understanding the basic fundamentals of how bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies work. Cash flow monitoring is how any modern company is valued. I provide that for my clients using hard data.
I plan on telling them my expected exit price, but only after I factor in the degree of hash rate drops correlated with the efficiency of previous bitcoin mining machines. I will do this in order to find the optimal profit exit point for the miners (whales). I do the work.
If you are able to do this, good luck to you! But I do the work for my clients, and if you want someone working hard for you are welcome to join my crypto family and get the following:
  1. Risk analysis for BTC , BCH, ETH, and LTC.
  2. Coin creation costs for BTC , BCH, ETH, and LTC.
  3. Advanced data based research covering how the fundamental price floor affects the spot price Feb 7 Analysis
  4. Actively managed portfolio where you see my daily trades and risk percentages. I am currently 2.11% up from June 2 off of LTC and BTC actions.
  5. Weekly summary of fundamental actions and analysis.
  6. Continuous updates and improvements that center on what YOU need to understand how crypto actually works.
  7. Access to me for council and coaching on your strategy.
If you want to keep following people that draw lines from random points and feed you nonsense like Fibonacci numbers be my guest, enjoy swimming with the fish. Any moron can draw a line between point A and point B and make it fit any agenda. Enjoy being told what just happened and being led into traps by unknowledgeable people making false correlations.
If you want to watch what the whales are doing I am here to help. This is just the beginning of the fall.
Please look at my open analysis and work, it is worth your time:
Sample Analysis Risk Analysis
I hope you see the true value of this.
Aaron
P.S. If you don't follow this enjoy buying the highs and selling the lows. It makes me sick how people are saying bitcoin is going to $100k. They care nothing for your safety and risk exposure. They only care about FOMO and hype.
submitted by Cocoadreamboy to btc [link] [comments]

What are your favourite short strategies?

I've been invested in bitcoin since mid 2014. I largely missed the opportunity to short it in December because I mistakenly thought the bull run had another month or two in it to be honest. Anyway, I just want to do some research on good strategies to make a smarter exit on part of my portfolio during the next bull run. I'm not a full time trader, so don't want to be glued to a screen all day. I'm more looking for some simple tips or strategies to help long term holders like me make the most of these multi year trends. If anyone has some good strategies they'd like to share, links to some good articles, or tradingview accounts with good info, please post it up!
submitted by pakage to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

My crypto story

I want to share my story over how I became a Master crypto trader I first heard about Bitcoin a couple years ago from a twitter account called Trutherbot. This twitter account played a big role in waking me to the truths of the federal reserve and the worldwide central banking scam. Nevertheless everytime he would post something about bitcoin I was to lazy to actually watch a 10 minute video on what it was.
Fast forward to summer 2017 Im working and going to school at the same time hating both at the same time. While I learned some valuable lessons and hd great teachers in college I saw Most universities as outdated institutions more focused on making money and having a succesful football team that actually keeping up to date with the age of information where most careers will have to be relearned by the time you get that paper. To top it all off I would have to go into debt to pay a 4 year university tuition. My job on the other hand was HUGE on "SELL THIS SELL THAT SELL EVERYTHING" It always made me feel like a total cuck seeing poor ladies with their fast food uniform on count out cash to try and pay their bills and it be my job to try to sell them on something I knew they couldn't afford. Point being I felt like a total shill working there and I wanted out. By habit I fall sleep watching a documentary about anything I find on youtube. I watched a youtuber who mentioned Bitcoin which was what eventually made me say " What the hell is this bitcoin thing" and decided to do some research. It was love at first sight. I saw Bitcoin as a sword forged from liberty itself to cut off the tentacles of historical bank oppression and create a financial revolution #DecentralizeEverything. I was so ecstatic; I felt like I had discovered a digital California gold rush besides the technological and financial revolution I was witnessing. I became huge on Bitcoin, almost all my twitter and facebook posts were about cryptocurrency and I kept telling everyone how this was the future. In those summer months I would get out what I could of my paycheck and put it into bitcoin. As the boom continued I continued to HODL and make more money. Then it hit me. "people who dedicate their life to trading stocks or forex it isnt luck its a strategy, and any strategy can be learned and applied.
As I hodled I called my family back in Mexico and told them all about it and my mom sent me 1k to invest it for her. The more I grew in knowledge the more comfortable I felt trading. Over time due to my posts on social media more and more people kept messaging me asking me about bitcoin and how they could invest. This made me decide to start a hedge fund and run it month by month. This was it. My exit from being a tax slave to the dollar fictional system. I quit my job, dropped out of school sold my car and moved back to Mexico with my fam so I could focus full time to trading with maximum efficiency. Fast forward to November 2017. I have 12.5 k invested and my sister turns 15, Her Dad sends her 6k as a birthday present and my mom gives me 4k to invest it for her. Total 16.5 k for the month. One night, I see BCH is pumping like hell. Sticking to trader discipline I tell myself theres no way IM buying on such a high, It goes from 300 to 400 to 500 to 600 to 1lk bam bam bam. This at the same time BTC is going down. I scamble to social media and see everyone talking about "The Cashening". I told myself I wouldent switch unless it went over 2.5k. Within 15 minutes I saw my fund drop 50% in price and i dumped. Now sitting with 50% of what I had I knew I had to make a powerplay to end the month positive. I scoured altcoins for that answer and found XLM. I even posted an analyses on my tradingview. telling everyone to buy at 491 and predicted a 57-120% increase . 4 hours before The pump I set a stop loss on XLM and go to sleep just in case. I wake up to find myself stop lossed with no XLM and it being around 1k sats. again , devastation. I wasent about to end the month negative and dissapoint all my Friends and family. I learned how to margin trade. I made an account on Bitmex and transfered my remaining funds in there.
Fast forward to today. I see BTC forming a pennant after breaking resistance and decide to all in 25x leverage. Gone, everything is gone. I apologize for the rushed ending but im still in shock. Im sorry for the clickbait title but I want this story to serve as an example to anyone who wants to become a "trader" in crypto. My advice is never go all in and just hodl; dont trade. or you could end up like me. A fool who let greed blind him. I dont want anyone else to experience the stress and anguish I felt and still feel. This all happened not more than 2 hours ago. Please be careful.
submitted by BlackPuma_ to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Has Bitcoin Gone for a Random Walk?

Has Bitcoin Gone for a Random Walk? This analysis will look at bitcoin’s cycles of volatility and stability to identify trading strategies during random walks.
Background Information
What is Random Walk Theory? A random walk is a large pattern that is formed by the cumulative effect of small changes. This is often applied in finance to mean the price of an asset ‘drifting’ in a particularly direction, with no major price swing being the sole cause. Consequently, price changes appear to be random and hard to predict.
What do random walks have to do with bitcoin? Although bitcoin is (in)famous for its volatility, the price has been through two periods of random walks. These periods are the majority of 2012 and the second half of 2014.
Why should bitcoin traders care about random walks? As our analysis shows, traders should adopt different trading strategies when bitcoin enters phases of random walks. Namely, keeping positions open for longer and using more leverage can help traders earn returns during random walks. This is because price changes are less sudden and smaller, requiring greater patience and more funds to achieve the same profits enjoyed outside of random walks.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
Introduction to analysis This analysis was made using a Random Walk Index (RWI) and the Chart Mill Value indicator (CVI).
The RWI measures the strength of market movements by comparing price movements to acceptable trading ranges. Thus a small price movement can be explained by random walk, while larger movements are part of a larger market trend.
The CVI identifies price ranges that are over-bought or over-sold. Relying on moving averages to identify extreme price deviations is less accurate because a long-term price deviation is hidden when the moving average follows the price closely. This happens frequently during random walks. In contrast, the CVI divides the spread by the average true range to give more accurate results.
The TradingView scripts were written by LazyBear. This author highly recommends following LazyBear on TradingView and thanks him for his scripts that made this analysis possible. LazyBear’s extensive range of scripts can be downloaded here.
Long-term bitcoin analysis
http://i.imgur.com/q59bCLo.png
One should read this chart from the bottom to the top.
RWI chart
Starting from the bottom of the chart, the RWI is plotted with a red line for price highs, and a blue line for price lows. When these two lines are closer together, the price is less volatile — thus, price movements are much more likely to be a result of random of walk. Conversely, when the two lines are further away, price changes are more likely to be driven by market trends, particularly greed-fear cycles.
When the RWI of price highs (red line) is above 1, there is a good chance of a sustainable rally. However when the RWI of price lows (blue line) is above 1, there is a good chance of a deep correction. A trader can use these indicators in the same way that moving averages are used to identify bullish or bearish trends. The histogram above this simply presents the same data on just one scale.
A key observation from this RWI chart is that crossovers appear to be consistent indicators of an incoming change in price direction.
It looks like the next crossover will occur in late March 2015, which is shown by the RWI chart; this is consistent with support/resistance levels.
Logarithmic chart
It is apparent that bitcoin enters phases of bubbles, separated by random walks. This becomes more clearer when charting basic long-term support and resistance levels.
With a good degree of fit, it looks as if there is a channel in which bitcoin enters a random walk. When the price drifts out of this random walk channel, it is because of a significant market trend. The price breaking out of this channel is a very bullish sign, with further gains to be made in most occasions.
This random walk channel theory provides good evidence for bitcoin’s price following a biennial (two year) cycle: a volatile year, and then a year of random walk. If one were to add data from Mt. Gox, a biennial cycle is even clearer: 2011 — Price rally 2012 — Positive random walk 2013 — Two price rallies 2014 — Negative random walk
If this pattern holds true, one can expect 2015 to feature a price rally, followed by a positive random walk in 2016.
Let’s take a look at how this information can be used for short-term bitcoin trading.
Short-term bitcoin analysis
http://i.imgur.com/OUbon8s.png
This chart should be read from the top to the bottom.
Logarithmic chart
The top price chart simply examines the price directly before and after entering the random walk channel. The trend line being broken in July is when bitcoin starts the random walk.
By simply looking at the chart, the price exhibits more gradual price movements, which are indicative of a random walk, after July. Up to July, the price is much more volatile.
RWI chart
This time the RWI chart is using seven periods (days in this case) to assess short-term volatility. It is interesting to see that there are fewer large price movements — defined as movements greater than a RWI of 4 — after the price starts its random walk. Before July, the price mostly changes direction at a RWI of 4. After July, volatility rarely exceeds a RWI of 3.
A trader can use this RWI chart to time the opening and closing of short positions. Namely, when the RWI of price lows (blue line) is increasing and moving towards a RWI of 3, a short position should be opened. When a RWI of 3 is reached, the position should be closed. This is the acceptable range of price movement within a random walk, and the market is likely to start correcting at this point.
CVI chart
The CVI chart identifies over-bought/sold prices with greater accuracy than moving averages. Unfortunately, since bitcoin entered the random walk, there is less scope to profit from a less volatile price. This means that in percentage terms, traders are likely to be experiencing lower returns since July.
However, traders can still achieve the same returns in BTC. If leverage / margin trading is used, the same profits in BTC can be made because the trader is using more funds to compensate for the lack of volatility. If the volatility drops by 50%, trading with 100% larger positions will lead to equal gains of BTC.
Furthermore, beginner traders could benefit from using a simple CVI chart to time entry and exit positions. By trading to this chart, emotions can be removed from trading decisions, leading to buying when the price is low and selling when the price is high. This method helped BTC.sx CEO turn $100 into $200,000.
Conclusion
The purpose of this analysis has been two-fold: one, analyse whether bitcoin is following a random walk; two, provide trading recommendations. The key trading recommendations can be summarized as follows:
  1. Watching the long-term RWI chart for crossovers can help traders find the start of bullish or bearish price trends.
  2. Significant levels of price volatility is not expected until late March 2015.
  3. When the RWI of price lows (blue line) is increasing and moving towards a RWI of 3, a short position should be opened. When a RWI of 3 is reached, the position should be closed.
  4. The CVI chart can be used to time the opening and closing of positions with greater accuracy than moving averages.
  5. To compensate for the lack of volatility, consider trading with leverage.
Written by Josh Blatchford, CMO of BTC.sx, a bitcoin trading platform that supports up to 10x leverage on Bitfinex, Bitstamp and itBit
submitted by BTC_sx to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

All about BitMex trading platform

Many crypto traders want to engage in leverage trading for different reasons; mostly to rapidly grow their capital. But nothing good comes easy so most trader abstained due to the high risk involved. Well in this post, I’m going to explain step by step how to trade crypto on BitMex with up to 100x leverage. Additionally for more conservative traders I will provide some telegram channels that gives free and VIP BitMex signal towards the end of this post. See the outline below as guideline as the post duels into BitMex operation. - How to create and fund BitMex account - BitMex overview and alt. coin pair contracts - Trading long and short with and without leverage - How to use stop losses
HOW TO CREATE AND FUND BITMEX ACCOUNT Simply go to https://www.bitmex.com/registeiHcxly. At the top right hand side corner hit register and fill in the required details. There are limitations for traders from the United State but it can be by-passed by selecting a different country of residence with the help the help of a VPN.
To add a two factor authorization for addition security, simply click corner of the dashboard; hit account and security, scroll down to security section and enable Google authenticator or yubikey. For Google authenticator visit Google Play Store on mobile phone and download the app. Open it and click the little plus sign at the top; scan the QR Code and enter the generated code on BitMex. Click submit to finish the process, so anytime you want to log-in enter a new two factor token generated on Google authenticator and log-in.
To fund your BitMex account, click account and send bitcoin to the bitcoin deposit address. An email will be sent to you after it receives the bitcoin. You can also check the balance in the account section
BITMEX OVERVIEW AND ALT COIN PAIR CONTRACTS BitMex dashboard is made up of different section and can be rearranged as traders see fit. This post covers all important sections necessary for trading. It covers order book, Order, recent trades and position/margin section.
At the midway after place order is position subsection. The leverage value is set in this section and depending on the alt coin pair it value ranges from cross to 100x. With the exception of Bitcoin all other pairs has a leverage limit below 50x.
TRADING BUY/LONG AND SELL/SHORT WITH AND WITHOUT LEVERAGE Depending on the speculation made a trader can either Buy/long or sell/short alt. pair, i.e. buy/long if predicted price to move above current price and sell/short if predicted price to move lower than current price. To open or close a position a trader can use the limit or market section. The amount to buy or sell is entered in the space beside the “quantity” in USD. Just below the “quantity” under the limit section is “Limit price” beside which a trader can enter the intended entry price. If a limit price is below the current price, a buy/long order will not be executed until the current price retraces and hit the limit price but, if limit price is set above current price, i.e. deep into the market buy/long order will execute immediately. Opposite scenario applies to the sell/short order.
In the market section only Quantity is required, this mean orders are executed automatically at current best price. Its disadvantage is double fee payment (Maker and taker fee)
LEVERAGE Leveraging simply refers to borrowing. Depending on risk a trader is willing to take leverage can be as high as 100 times the trading capital. For example a trader with $20 can trade with $200 under 10x leverage. In a nutshell, a trader can multiply his trade amount with leverage as he sees fit. But the higher the leverage the higher the risk involved. For simplicity a 10x leverage will be used to explain some parameters. Under the Buy/Long and Sell/Short there is cost, order value and available balance. Cost is the actual amount a trader risk on particular trade; order value is the amount being traded with leverage i.e. order value = cost × leverage and available balance is remaining balance after cost is deducted in original balance.
With leverage being explained it will be unfair to skip its risky aspect. At the point of executing an order with leverage a pop up box to confirm the order will be displayed. On the box are the order details: - Order value: Trade quantity with leverage - Cost: The actual capital of stake - Available balance: Balance remaining without the cost - Estimated liquidation price: If hit the price at which a trader’s position will be liquidated and result in loss of all cost price. So it is very important to look at the liquidation price before executing a particular trade.
Position section becomes very important after confirming an order. It is there the liquidation price unrealized PNL and active orders are monitored. The unrealized PNL shows percentage loss or gain of open positions while realize PNL indicates that of close position.
HOW TO USE STOP LOSSES In the last tab under place order section are stop losses. It consist of four different type - stop limit, stop market, trailing stop and take profit
Now that we’ve covered the essential part of BitMex trading, let’s scrutinize and look at success rate of some BitMex trading signal telegram channel. The best BitMex signal telegram channel I’ve come across so far is Bitmex Call t.me/bitmexcall. They roughly give 1 signal per day on their free channel. Their success rate is around 91% i.e. in 22 signal 20 hit their targets while remaining 2 hit stop losses. Other channels are Bitmex Lifestyle t.me/ bitmexlifestyle and Zcrypto trading t.me/zcrypto. Register and start BitMex trading via my affiliate link and enjoy 10% fee discount for the next 6 months. https://www.bitmex.com/registeiHcxly If comfortable you can also donate BTC for an ongoing trading signal app and website project I’m currently developing to 1K4SLVq5QaC7F1VHWzsjp94LucXuRprU1C HAPPY TRADING
Buy BTC from Coinbase via https://www.coinbase.com/join/57fa34df135663714e192d99 and enjoy bonus of 10 dollars Or from Remitano via https://remitano.com/ng?ref=mumeen bit.ly/2J2CcLb
submitted by sb_order to u/sb_order [link] [comments]

All about BitMex trading platform

Many crypto traders want to engage in leverage trading for different reasons; mostly to rapidly grow their capital. But nothing good comes easy so most trader abstained due to the high risk involved. Well in this post, I’m going to explain step by step how to trade crypto on BitMex with up to 100x leverage. Additionally for more conservative traders I will provide some telegram channels that gives free and VIP BitMex signal towards the end of this post. See the outline below as guideline as the post duels into BitMex operation. - How to create and fund BitMex account - BitMex overview and alt. coin pair contracts - Trading long and short with and without leverage - How to use stop losses
HOW TO CREATE AND FUND BITMEX ACCOUNT Simply go to https://www.bitmex.com/registeiHcxly. At the top right hand side corner hit register and fill in the required details. There are limitations for traders from the United State but it can be by-passed by selecting a different country of residence with the help the help of a VPN.
To add a two factor authorization for addition security, simply click corner of the dashboard; hit account and security, scroll down to security section and enable Google authenticator or yubikey. For Google authenticator visit Google Play Store on mobile phone and download the app. Open it and click the little plus sign at the top; scan the QR Code and enter the generated code on BitMex. Click submit to finish the process, so anytime you want to log-in enter a new two factor token generated on Google authenticator and log-in.
To fund your BitMex account, click account and send bitcoin to the bitcoin deposit address. An email will be sent to you after it receives the bitcoin. You can also check the balance in the account section
BITMEX OVERVIEW AND ALT COIN PAIR CONTRACTS BitMex dashboard is made up of different section and can be rearranged as traders see fit. This post covers all important sections necessary for trading. It covers order book, Order, recent trades and position/margin section.
At the midway after place order is position subsection. The leverage value is set in this section and depending on the alt coin pair it value ranges from cross to 100x. With the exception of Bitcoin all other pairs has a leverage limit below 50x.
TRADING BUY/LONG AND SELL/SHORT WITH AND WITHOUT LEVERAGE Depending on the speculation made a trader can either Buy/long or sell/short alt. pair, i.e. buy/long if predicted price to move above current price and sell/short if predicted price to move lower than current price. To open or close a position a trader can use the limit or market section. The amount to buy or sell is entered in the space beside the “quantity” in USD. Just below the “quantity” under the limit section is “Limit price” beside which a trader can enter the intended entry price. If a limit price is below the current price, a buy/long order will not be executed until the current price retraces and hit the limit price but, if limit price is set above current price, i.e. deep into the market buy/long order will execute immediately. Opposite scenario applies to the sell/short order.
In the market section only Quantity is required, this mean orders are executed automatically at current best price. Its disadvantage is double fee payment (Maker and taker fee)
LEVERAGE Leveraging simply refers to borrowing. Depending on risk a trader is willing to take leverage can be as high as 100 times the trading capital. For example a trader with $20 can trade with $200 under 10x leverage. In a nutshell, a trader can multiply his trade amount with leverage as he sees fit. But the higher the leverage the higher the risk involved. For simplicity a 10x leverage will be used to explain some parameters. Under the Buy/Long and Sell/Short there is cost, order value and available balance. Cost is the actual amount a trader risk on particular trade; order value is the amount being traded with leverage i.e. order value = cost × leverage and available balance is remaining balance after cost is deducted in original balance.
With leverage being explained it will be unfair to skip its risky aspect. At the point of executing an order with leverage a pop up box to confirm the order will be displayed. On the box are the order details: - Order value: Trade quantity with leverage - Cost: The actual capital of stake - Available balance: Balance remaining without the cost - Estimated liquidation price: If hit the price at which a trader’s position will be liquidated and result in loss of all cost price. So it is very important to look at the liquidation price before executing a particular trade.
Position section becomes very important after confirming an order. It is there the liquidation price unrealized PNL and active orders are monitored. The unrealized PNL shows percentage loss or gain of open positions while realize PNL indicates that of close position.
HOW TO USE STOP LOSSES In the last tab under place order section are stop losses. It consist of four different type - stop limit, stop market, trailing stop and take profit
Now that we’ve covered the essential part of BitMex trading, let’s scrutinize and look at success rate of some BitMex trading signal telegram channel. The best BitMex signal telegram channel I’ve come across so far is Bitmex Call t.me/bitmexcall. They roughly give 1 signal per day on their free channel. Their success rate is around 91% i.e. in 22 signal 20 hit their targets while remaining 2 hit stop losses. Other channels are Bitmex Lifestyle t.me/ bitmexlifestyle and Zcrypto trading t.me/zcrypto. Register and start BitMex trading via my affiliate link and enjoy 10% fee discount for the next 6 months. https://www.bitmex.com/registeiHcxly If comfortable you can also donate BTC for an ongoing trading signal app and website project I’m currently developing to: 1K4SLVq5QaC7F1VHWzsjp94LucXuRprU1C HAPPY TRADING Buy BTC from Coinbase via https://www.coinbase.com/join/57fa34df135663714e192d99 and enjoy bonus of 10 dollars Or from Remitano via https://remitano.com/ng?ref=mumeen
submitted by sb_order to cryptotrading [link] [comments]

BitMEX News & Changelog: October 14, 2017

We're going to start doing regular updates of new features to the BitMEX platform on Reddit. For API users, the API Changelog will still be updated regularly.
This has been a busy week for us, mostly consisting of scaling the platform and fixing bugs. We hit a best-ever volume record of $1.75B on Thursday. We have been identifying and rearchitecting parts of the system that have become bottlenecks.

BitMEX News

Architecture Changes:

We are aware that certain jobs, such as mark price updates, require major processing. This is, by definition, a heavy piece of work requiring full-system remargining and requires some time to complete, resulting in small slowdowns for end users. Our engine team is working full-time on optimizations to this and other actions.

Frontend Changes:

That's it for early October. We'll create a new post in a few weeks. Thanks to all our loyal traders for helping us set records this month!
submitted by STRML to BitMEX [link] [comments]

80 Trillion Dollar Bitcoin Exit Plan - YouTube Tools of the Bitcoin Automated Tradingview Alerts to API Exchange Trader Holy Grail Chart + Strategy. Market Cipher Killer. Bitcoin ... 1 Cryptocurrency Trading Strategy To Make $100 Day Trading ... Exit Indicators - Worth A Lot More Than You Think - YouTube

The Best Bitcoin Trading Strategy – 5 Easy Steps to Profit. This is a cryptocurrency trading strategy that can be used to trade all the important cryptocurrencies. Actually, this is an Ethereum trading strategy as much as it’s a Bitcoin trading strategy. If you didn’t know Ethereum is the second most popular cryptocurrency (see figure below). The best Bitcoin trading strategy is an 85% ... Charts are used as exit strategies such as mass inflow of assets into the cryptocurrency market, rise in the value of Bitcoin as a hedge measure, triggering positive sentiment through the news, and inflation due to quantitative easing in the world( inflation, falling currency values in each country). May be reflected in In general, if you use the exit strategy earlier than it should, the ... Guys ! we all know about Renko Charts, you can use this strategy which is really basic, simple but very very effective. For making good profit it's not that you need loaded Indicators and systems, sometimes a very basic system turns to be effective. Here i am discussing a system which always works. Clear entry and exit rules, you can use this system for scalping on 5 minutes to 15 Minutes ... This is a TradingView Strategy Script meaning you can't execute real trades using your exchange API connected to your TradingView account, it is designed for backtesting only This is a basic backtesting script for charting the bullish and bearish cross of two user defined simple moving averages, select the cog next to the name of the script ON the price chart in the left hand corner. TradingView. Sign In . Ticker Trading Ideas ... First strategy This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies. The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow... 88. 5. Super Guppy Strategy. StanleyBostich. CM ...

[index] [45364] [19068] [21873] [23152] [11059] [7664] [8059] [39414] [20043] [23784]

80 Trillion Dollar Bitcoin Exit Plan - YouTube

Bitcoin - 80 Trillion Dollar Exit. I talk about how Bitcoin will eventually become an exit ramp from the crashing 80 trillion dollar financial system, the ec... Best Bitcoin Trading Strategies 2020 (THE Top Strategy for Bitcoin Trading) Comment below your thoughts... [Last few days of $20 Membership] Rockstar Trading Group is the ultamate trading ... This strategy video uses MFI and MACD in conjunction on the 5-Minute timeframe for simple entries and exits on Cryptowatch. Conservative Method - 0:33 Aggres... Tools of the Bitcoin Tradingview Alerts to API Exchange Trader AlertsTrader.com is a Google Chrome Extention. And is the best tool to send trade orders to bi... 👇🏻Support the channel by using my affiliate links below👇🏻 Exchanges I'm using: Coinbase FIAT https://www.coinbase.com/join/59398125002bcc03276297d6 Bin...

#